India ’s GDP growth rate could brake in the second half of this century as the country’s population could shrink in 2048 to a 32 percent lower level by 2100. The number of its working-age population, which lies between 20 years to 64 years, could fall to nearly 578 million in 2100 from about 762 million in 2017. These are among the possibilities in an analysis published by The Lancet, a British publication on health affairs. Richard Horton is the Editor-In-Chief of the journal, he said “This important research plots a future we need to be planning for urgently. It forecasts a shift in the geopolitical power, myths about India immigration, and highlights the value of strengthening and protecting the sexual and reproductive rights of women.”
He further said, “The 21st century will witness a revolution in the story of human civilization. African and Arabic countries will mold our future, while European and Asian countries will go back from their position. By the end of this century, the world will become multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China, and the US standing as the dominant powers.”
However, this report contradicts an earlier prediction by the United Nations Population Division of “continuing global growth”. The report said the Indian workforce will shrink, which will the lower tax collection along with an aging population, will put immense pressure on healthcare and social care systems. As per the prediction, India ’s population is expected to increase to 1.6 billion in 2048 followed by a curtailment to 1.09 billion by 2100.
India ’s total fertility rate (TFR) went down to 2.1 in 2019. It is visualized that this will continue to go down, marking a TFR of 1.29 in 2100. Despite the shrinkage in TFR, it is estimated that India will continue to have the largest workforce globally in 2100. The report also says India’s working population will cross China’s workforce in the mid-2020s.
The report also said the global population is predicted to reach its peak at around 9.7 billion people in 2064 then decrease to 8 billion by the end of the century.