The worse is yet to come: Coronavirus forecast predicted over 4,10,000 deaths in US by January 1


Coronavirus forecast: According to a new forecast predicted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, the US will cross the mark of 4,10,000 deaths by the end of the year as the country is heading towards the fall and winter season.


Current Coronavirus death toll

Till now, COVID 19 has already killed 186,800 people in the US, according to the data reported by Johns Hopkins University. The model by Institute for Health Metrics, whose model previously been stated by White House and state officials, forecasted that the deaths will be nearly more than double by January in the US. And it could reach to the death toll of 620,000 if the country will relieving the restrictions in Coronavirus and people disregarding the public health guidance.


Dr. Christopher Murray, director of IHME, told reporters on a conference call Friday, “The worst is yet to come. I don’t think perhaps that’s a surprise, but I think there’s a natural tendency as we’re a little bit in the Northern hemisphere summer, to think maybe the epidemic is going away.”

Institute for Health Metrics

Forecast and Numbers predicted by IHME

By far the IHME has predicted the right numbers. In June, IHME predicted that the death numbers in The US would reach 200,000 by October, which seem to be on track. However, some mathematicians and epidemiologists criticized IHME for making predictions too far in the future.

IHME previously provided a model in which it projected 317,697 deaths by Dec. 1. The recent model, now projects daily death toll could rise o 3000 per day in December which is 800 per day currently.

IHME Released three projections based on different assumptions that are A worst-case scenario, best-case scenario, and most likely scenario.

Assumptions suggest three scenario

In the most likely scenario, it estimates the Coronavirus will kill almost 410,450 people in the U.S. by Jan. 1. According to the worst-case scenario, in which it assumes there will be relaxations in the restrictions in the guidelines then, 620,028 people in the U.S. will die by then. And in the best-case scenario, which assumes universal masking, predicts that 288,380 people in the U.S. will die from Covid-19 in 2020.

Government policies and relaxation will play an important role in determining whether which case will best suit the situation and how many people will die due to the virus this winter.

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